MLB / mlb / live
NYY 3 / NYM 6NYYNew York Yankees46%
NYMNew York Mets54%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterCarlos Rodón
Model pickNYM moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterHuascar Brazobán
NYY46%ML -132
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
NYM54%ML +112
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.2 pts
Brazoban has 2.1 IP across 5 'starts' (likely bulk reliever), Rodon missing all season stats. Model likes NYM at 53.5% vs market 45.4% on utterly unreliable pitcher data. Pitcher_data_fallback should have fired but didn't—this is a structural gap. No defensible comparison exists when neither starter's true talent is knowable.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-132 / +112NYY / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total