MLB / mlb / live
NYY 3 / NYM 6NYYNew York Yankees46%
NYMNew York Mets54%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterCarlos Rodón
Model pickNYM moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterHuascar Brazobán
NYY46%ML -132
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
NYM54%ML +112
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap8.2 pts
Brazoban has 2.1 IP across 5 'starts' (likely bulk reliever), Rodon missing all season stats. Model likes NYM at 53.5% vs market 45.4% on utterly unreliable pitcher data. Pitcher_data_fallback should have fired but didn't—this is a structural gap. No defensible comparison exists when neither starter's true talent is knowable.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-132 / +112NYY / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total