MLB / mlb / live
NYY 5 / NYM 2NYYNew York Yankees56%
NYMNew York Mets44%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterCam Schlittler
Model pickNYY moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterClay Holmes
NYY56%ML -154
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
NYM44%ML +130
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.1 pts
Model has NYY at 56% vs market 60%, reasonable convergence. Model's 9.04 total vs market 7.0 is a 2-run gap—flag fires correctly. Citi Field slight hitter park (1.03 PF). Missing pitcher stats make total projection unreliable; lean over given model confidence but downgrade to lean given data gaps.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-154 / +130NYY / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -118 / U -101
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total