MLB / mlb / live
DET 2 / NYM 10DETDetroit Tigers52%
NYMNew York Mets48%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterJack Flaherty
Model pickDET moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterFreddy Peralta
DET52%ML +125
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
NYM48%ML -151
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.8 pts
Market favors NYM at 57.6% vs model's 47.8% on DET—large disagreement flag fires. Both pitchers show concerning trends: Peralta's 7.20 ERA in 5.0 IP, Flaherty's 1.85 WHIP. Model's 8.94 total vs market 7.5 suggests over lean, supported by weak pitching profiles. Defer to market on side, lean over on shaky starters.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+125 / -151DET / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -114 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line21 total