MLB / mlb / live
WSN 14 / NYM 2WSNWashington Nationals47%
NYMNew York Mets53%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterCade Cavalli
Model pickNYM moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterDavid Peterson
WSN47%ML +140
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
NYM53%ML -164
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.1 pts
Model has NYM at 53% but market implies 60% for home side. WSN has better offense (4.4 RPG, .820 OPS vs 3.5/.736) and superior record (13-17 vs 10-19). Peterson's 5.1 IP across 10 starts is tiny sample; Cavalli's 12.27 K/9 is a live strikeout weapon. Model total of 9.23 vs market 7.5 is a 1.7-run gap—lean under toward market wisdom.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+140 / -164WSN / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total