MLB / mlb / live
COL 3 / NYM 1COLColorado Rockies35%
NYMNew York Mets65%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterJose Quintana
Model pickNYM moneyline65%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterNolan McLean
COL35%ML +185
Base model probability65%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability66%Selected moneyline pick
NYM65%ML -225
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanOver
Model-market gap1.6 pts
Model at 64.8% vs market 66.3% on NYM - modest disagreement. COL's 4.1 RPG looks good but .531 OPS is bottom-tier; NYM's .736 OPS with 2.9 RPG screams poor sequencing luck. Quintana's 1.85 WHIP in 4.1 IP is tiny sample noise. Model total 8.64 vs market 7.5 suggests over lean, Citi Field PF neutral doesn't suppress it.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin1.8
Projected total8.6
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+185 / -225COL / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total