MLB / mlb / live
WSN 0 / NYM 8WSNWashington Nationals53%
NYMNew York Mets47%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterZack Littell
Model pickWSN moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterClay Holmes
WSN53%ML +156
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
NYM47%ML -190
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time15.9 pts
Model has WSN 53% but market heavily favors NYM at 63% implied. Missing pitcher ERA/WHIP data limits conviction despite 10 starts each. Model's 9.06 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.56-run gap—typically structural miss. Park factor neutral. Lean NYM with market, under on inflated model total.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+156 / -190WSN / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -117 / U -104
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total