MLB / mlb / live
WSN 0 / NYM 8WSNWashington Nationals53%
NYMNew York Mets47%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterZack Littell
Model pickWSN moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterClay Holmes
WSN53%ML +156
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability37%Selected moneyline pick
NYM47%ML -190
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap15.8 pts
Model has WSN 53% but market heavily favors NYM at 63% implied. Missing pitcher ERA/WHIP data limits conviction despite 10 starts each. Model's 9.06 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.56-run gap—typically structural miss. Park factor neutral. Lean NYM with market, under on inflated model total.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+156 / -190WSN / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -117 / U -104
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total