MLB / mlb / live
MIN 8 / NYM 10MINMinnesota Twins55%
NYMNew York Mets45%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterJoe Ryan
Model pickMIN moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterChristian Scott
MIN55%ML -114
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
NYM45%ML -104
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.0 pts
Scott's missing stats force heavy reliance on team context. MIN's 5.0 RPG offense vs NYM's 2.2 RPG is stark. Model projects 9.24 total vs market 7.5—a 1.74 run gap flags structural overestimation. Ryan's 0.0 ERA in 5.1 IP is extreme small sample but Citi Field slight hitter park won't inflate totals much. Pass on side confidence given pitcher uncertainty.
pitcher data fallbacktotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-114 / -104MIN / NYM moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total