MLB / mlb / live
MIN 5 / NYM 3MINMinnesota Twins42%
NYMNew York Mets58%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterSimeon Woods Richardson
Model pickNYM moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterNolan McLean
MIN42%ML +150
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
NYM58%ML -183
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.5 pts
Woods Richardson has no resolved stats (null ERA/IP/K9), triggering structural uncertainty despite 10 starts logged. NYM offense is deeply broken (1.7 RPG, 7-15 record) yet model picks them at 57.5% vs market's 62%. Model total of 9.09 runs is wildly high vs market 7.5 in a pitcher's park with one team averaging 1.7 RPG. Flags signal model confusion; insufficient data to override market.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+150 / -183MIN / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
31 books29 ML23 run line21 total