MLB / mlb / live
MIN 2 / NYM 3MINMinnesota Twins57%
NYMNew York Mets43%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterConnor Prielipp
Model pickMIN moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterClay Holmes
MIN57%ML +133
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability41%Selected moneyline pick
NYM43%ML -159
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanOver
Model-market gap16.2 pts
Model favors MIN at 57% vs market's 41%, a 16-point gap. Away pitcher has fallback data (no ERA/K9/WHIP), home pitcher Holmes lacks stats despite 10 starts. NYM offense at 1.9 RPG through 23 games is historically poor. Model total 9.23 vs market 8.0 suggests structural over-lean, but pitcher uncertainty is severe. Pass on side, slight over lean given MIN's 5.2 RPG.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+133 / -159MIN / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -106
29 books27 ML21 run line19 total