MLB / mlb / live
MIN 2 / NYM 3MINMinnesota Twins57%
NYMNew York Mets43%
at Citi Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterConnor Prielipp
Model pickMIN moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
NYMHome starterClay Holmes
MIN57%ML +133
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
NYM43%ML -159
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time16.4 pts
Model favors MIN at 57% vs market's 41%, a 16-point gap. Away pitcher has fallback data (no ERA/K9/WHIP), home pitcher Holmes lacks stats despite 10 starts. NYM offense at 1.9 RPG through 23 games is historically poor. Model total 9.23 vs market 8.0 suggests structural over-lean, but pitcher uncertainty is severe. Pass on side, slight over lean given MIN's 5.2 RPG.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+133 / -159MIN / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -106
29 books27 ML21 run line19 total