sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

TEX 2 / MIN 10
TEXTexas Rangers46%
MINMinnesota Twins54%

at Target Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterJacob deGromConfirmed
Model pickMIN moneyline54%Model 20260921_auto
MINHome starterJoe RyanConfirmed
TEX46%ML -125
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
MIN54%ML +105

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.7 pts

Model takes MIN despite worse record (75-84 vs 79-80) and worse offense (3.8 RPG, .673 OPS vs 4.4, .698) — the mismatch flag is a red flag. Market sits near pickem at +101/-109, so I'll take the small comparison with TEX and deGrom (11.12 K/9, 1.10 WHIP). Model's 8.03 total is above the 7.0 line; two high-K starters and two modest offenses argue under despite Target Field's 1.06 park factor.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.2
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jacob deGromTEX starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +105 betmgm / U -118 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.548%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Joe RyanMIN starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +126 fanduel / U -150 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 6.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%over
O 7.520%over
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-125 / +105TEX / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -109 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total