MLB / mlb / live
NYY 8 / MIN 1NYYNew York Yankees57%
MINMinnesota Twins43%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterMax FriedConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline57%Model 20260914_auto
MINHome starterBailey OberConfirmed
NYY57%ML -170
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
MIN43%ML +142
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.6
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Max FriedNYY starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -123 betonlineag / U +122 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Bailey OberMIN starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 betonlineag / U -156 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-170 / +142NYY / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total