MLB / mlb / live
CHW 7 / MIN 4CHWChicago White Sox43%
MINMinnesota Twins57%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterLuis CastilloConfirmed
Model pickMIN moneyline57%Model 20260824_auto
MINHome starterDean KremerConfirmed
CHW43%ML +114
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
MIN57%ML -132
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Luis CastilloCHW starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.1Actual 1 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.580%under
O 2.559%under
O 3.537%under
O 4.520%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Dean KremerMIN starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 fanduel / U -147 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%under
O 4.564%under
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+114 / -132CHW / MIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -116
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total