MLB / mlb / live
ATL 1 / MIN 4ATLAtlanta Braves55%
MINMinnesota Twins45%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterTyler MahleConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline55%Model 20260817_auto
MINHome starterZebby MatthewsConfirmed
ATL55%ML -147
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
MIN45%ML +125
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.4
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Tyler MahleATL starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -108 draftkings / U -104 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Zebby MatthewsMIN starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +103 draftkings / U -123 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-147 / +125ATL / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total