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PHI 7 / MIN 1
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies58%
MINMinnesota Twins42%

at Field of Dreams

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterAaron NolaConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline58%Model 20260810_auto
MINHome starterTaj BradleyConfirmed
PHI58%ML -105
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
MIN42%ML -110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.7 pts

Model takes PHI at 58.2% against a pick'em market, but the underlying inputs point the other way: Nola carries a 5.47 ERA and 1.45 WHIP versus Bradley's 3.76 ERA and 10.12 K/9, and Philadelphia's .570 OPS trails Minnesota's .673 at equal 4.5 RPG. Taking the home side. No park factor for the venue, so no total view.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Aaron NolaPHI starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -150 fanatics / U +125 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 4.565%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.533%over
O 7.521%over
O 8.513%over
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Taj BradleyMIN starter / home
Projected K6.4Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -128 fanduel / U +105 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 5.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%under
O 4.576%under
O 5.561%under
O 6.546%under
O 7.532%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-105 / -110PHI / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -121 / U +100
31 books30 ML22 run line22 total