MLB / mlb / live
PHI 7 / MIN 5PHIPhiladelphia Phillies58%
MINMinnesota Twins42%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterAndrew PainterConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline58%Model 20260810_auto
MINHome starterDean KremerConfirmed
PHI58%ML -112
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
MIN42%ML -104
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.4
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Andrew PainterPHI starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -128 draftkings / U +108 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%under
O 3.550%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Dean KremerMIN starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 betmgm / U -124 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-112 / -104PHI / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-167)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -106 / U -115
31 books30 ML22 run line22 total