MLB / mlb / live
PHI 9 / MIN 1PHIPhiladelphia Phillies58%
MINMinnesota Twins42%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterJesús LuzardoConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline58%Model 20260810_auto
MINHome starterConnor PrielippConfirmed
PHI58%ML -134
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
MIN42%ML +115
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / away
Projected K7.2Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +100 betmgm / U -119 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.592%over
O 4.583%over
O 5.571%over
O 6.557%over
O 7.543%over
O 8.530%over
O 9.520%under
O 10.513%under
O 11.57%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Connor PrielippMIN starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betrivers / U -140 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-134 / +115PHI / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML22 run line22 total