MLB / mlb / live
BAL 5 / MIN 7BALBaltimore Orioles58%
MINMinnesota Twins42%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterShane BazConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline58%Model 20260810_auto
MINHome starterZebby MatthewsConfirmed
BAL58%ML -109
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
MIN42%ML -110
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Shane BazBAL starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -128 fanduel / U +102 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%under
O 3.568%under
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Zebby MatthewsMIN starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +112 fanduel / U -129 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%under
O 5.543%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-109 / -110BAL / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -102 / U -118
31 books30 ML22 run line22 total