MLB / mlb / live
BAL 5 / MIN 2BALBaltimore Orioles53%
MINMinnesota Twins47%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterBrandon YoungConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
MINHome starterBailey OberConfirmed
BAL53%ML -102
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
MIN47%ML -115
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Brandon YoungBAL starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +126 fanduel / U -153 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Bailey OberMIN starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betmgm / U -142 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.545%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-102 / -115BAL / MIN moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+128)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML22 run line22 total