MLB / mlb / live
KCR 3 / MIN 4KCRKansas City Royals45%
MINMinnesota Twins55%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterNoah CameronConfirmed
Model pickMIN moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
MINHome starterBailey OberConfirmed
KCR45%ML +115
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
MIN55%ML -136
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.3
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Noah CameronKCR starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betmgm / U +105 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Bailey OberMIN starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -160 fanatics / U +128 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+115 / -136KCR / MIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total