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BAL 5 / MIN 9
BALBaltimore Orioles43%
MINMinnesota Twins57%

at Target Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterTrevor RogersConfirmed
Model pickMIN moneyline57%Model 20260810_auto
MINHome starterDean KremerConfirmed
BAL43%ML -110
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
MIN57%ML -109

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.3 pts

Model's 56.8% on MIN is ~8 pts above the market's 48.5% implied, and the pitching matchup argues the other way: Kremer's 5.93 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over 41 IP versus Rogers' 4.20 ERA and 1.24 WHIP across 115.7 IP. Two weak offenses (3.9 and 3.7 RPG, .673/.662 OPS) make the model's 9.02 total look high against an 8.5 line despite the mild Target Field park factor.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Trevor RogersBAL starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betonlineag / U +106 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Dean KremerMIN starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 bovada / U -140 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.531%over
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-110 / -109BAL / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -115
32 books31 ML22 run line22 total