MLB / mlb / live
scheduledKCRKansas City Royals46%
MINMinnesota Twins54%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterSeth LugoProbable
Model pickMIN moneyline54%Model 20260727_auto
MINHome starterTaj BradleyProbable
KCR46%ML +135
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
MIN54%ML -161
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.4
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Seth LugoKCR starter / away
Projected K4.0
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.576%
O 3.557%
O 4.538%
O 5.523%
O 6.512%
O 7.56%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Taj BradleyMIN starter / home
Projected K6.0
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.593%
O 3.583%
O 4.570%
O 5.554%
O 6.539%
O 7.526%
O 8.516%
O 9.59%
O 10.55%
O 11.53%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+135 / -161KCR / MIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+128)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total