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KCR 4 / MIN 0
KCRKansas City Royals42%
MINMinnesota Twins58%

at Target Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
KCRAway starterRandy DobnakConfirmed
Model pickMIN moneyline58%Model 20260727_auto
MINHome starterJoe RyanConfirmed
KCR42%ML +170
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
MIN58%ML -202

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.6 pts

Model has MIN 58.4%, market implies 62.0% — moderate disagreement favoring home. Joe Ryan's 3.38 ERA over 114 IP is legitimate; Dobnak's 1.42 ERA in just 19 IP is extreme small-sample noise. Ace_matchup flag misleading here given Dobnak's tiny sample. Model's 9.72 total vs market 8.5 is a 1.2-run gap; hitter park (1.06) and Dobnak regression risk support over lean.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total10.3
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Randy DobnakKCR starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +103 betonlineag / U -115 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 2.564%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%over
O 3.543%over
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Joe RyanMIN starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +107 betrivers / U -125 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 6.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%under
O 5.557%under
O 6.541%under
O 7.528%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+170 / -202KCR / MIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -106 / U -114
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total