sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

scheduled
KCRKansas City Royals42%
MINMinnesota Twins58%

at Target Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
KCRAway starterRandy DobnakProbable
Model pickMIN moneyline58%Model 20260727_auto
MINHome starterJoe RyanProbable
KCR42%ML +165
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability64%Selected moneyline pick
MIN58%ML -200

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanOver
Model-market gap5.4 pts

Model has MIN 58.4%, market implies 62.0% — moderate disagreement favoring home. Joe Ryan's 3.38 ERA over 114 IP is legitimate; Dobnak's 1.42 ERA in just 19 IP is extreme small-sample noise. Ace_matchup flag misleading here given Dobnak's tiny sample. Model's 9.72 total vs market 8.5 is a 1.2-run gap; hitter park (1.06) and Dobnak regression risk support over lean.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total10.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Joe RyanMIN starter / home
Projected K6.1
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.593%
O 3.584%
O 4.571%
O 5.556%
O 6.541%
O 7.528%
O 8.517%
O 9.510%
O 10.56%
O 11.53%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+165 / -200KCR / MIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+108)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total