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OAK 0 / MIN 2
OAKOakland Athletics41%
MINMinnesota Twins59%

at Target Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterBrady BassoConfirmed
Model pickMIN moneyline59%Model 20260720_auto
MINHome starterKendry RojasConfirmed
OAK41%ML +125
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
MIN59%ML -148

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.5 pts

Home pitcher is TBD with fallback stats (5.21 ERA, 76 IP); model's moneyline pick (MIN 58.5%) vs market (60.0%) shows thin comparison on unreliable data. Barnett's 21.3 IP sample is too small to trust. Model total 9.37 is 1.13 runs under market 10.5; I lean under given pitcher uncertainty, but won't take a side with TBD in the rotation.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Brady BassoOAK starter / away
Projected K2.9Actual 3 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.577%over
O 2.554%over
O 3.532%under
O 4.516%under
O 5.57%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Mike ParedesMIN starter / home
Projected K3.2Did not start / void
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%
O 2.561%
O 3.539%
O 4.522%
O 5.511%
O 6.55%
O 7.52%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+125 / -148OAK / MIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+128)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -112 / U -109
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total