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COL 8 / MIN 9
COLColorado Rockies58%
MINMinnesota Twins42%

at Target Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterTomoyuki SuganoConfirmed
Model pickCOL moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
MINHome starterTaj BradleyConfirmed
COL58%ML +150
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability38%Selected moneyline pick
MIN42%ML -179

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap19.9 pts

Model likes COL at 58.3% but market has MIN at 60%. This is the exact market_disagreement_large scenario where market typically wins. MIN's home park factor (1.06) slightly inflates totals. Bradley's 9.86 K/9 edges Sugano's 5.22, but neither pitcher profile screams comparison. Defer to Pinnacle's superior information; lean MIN without conviction.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.6
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tomoyuki SuganoCOL starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +125 betonlineag / U -143 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%under
O 3.547%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Taj BradleyMIN starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 betmgm / U -125 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+150 / -179COL / MIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total