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COL 8 / MIN 5
COLColorado Rockies53%
MINMinnesota Twins47%

at Target Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterMichael LorenzenConfirmed
Model pickCOL moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
MINHome starterMike ParedesConfirmed
COL53%ML +117
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
MIN47%ML -140

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap9.3 pts

Model prefers COL at 53.4% vs market's 43.5% — a 10pp gap flags structural error. COL is 28-54 with 1.5 RPG and .531 OPS, historically weak offense. Lorenzen's 7.11 ERA in 76 IP is real, not noise. Model likely overweighting short-term variance. Lean MIN on side, under 9.5 total given offensive struggles.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.3
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Michael LorenzenCOL starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 betrivers / U -152 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%under
O 2.579%under
O 3.561%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Mike ParedesMIN starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +100 betrivers / U -119 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%under
O 3.551%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+117 / -140COL / MIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total