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LAD 4 / MIN 3
LADLos Angeles Dodgers53%
MINMinnesota Twins47%

at Target Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterShohei OhtaniConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
MINHome starterJoe RyanConfirmed
LAD53%ML -164
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
MIN47%ML +135

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.9 pts

Model has LAD at 53.4%, market at 61.7% — an 8.3pp gap flags structural miss. Ohtani (1.47 ERA, 0.88 WHIP in 73.7 IP) vs Ryan (2.99 ERA, 1.0 WHIP in 87.3 IP) is a legitimate ace matchup favoring LAD. Model total 9.27 vs market 8.0 seems high given elite pitching; lean under. Market correctly prices LAD stronger than model suggests.

Large model-market gapace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shohei OhtaniLAD starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +115 bovada / U -129 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 6.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%over
O 5.552%over
O 6.537%over
O 7.524%over
O 8.515%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Joe RyanMIN starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -144 fanduel / U +125 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%over
O 5.554%over
O 6.539%over
O 7.526%over
O 8.516%over
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-164 / +135LAD / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML22 run line22 total