MLB / mlb / live
CHW 8 / MIN 0CHWChicago White Sox53%
MINMinnesota Twins47%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterErick Fedde
Model pickCHW moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterTaj Bradley
CHW53%ML +125
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
MIN47%ML -150
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap10.6 pts
Model favors CHW 53% but market has MIN at 58%. Away pitcher Fedde has no resolved stats (null ERA/IP/K9/WHIP) despite data_quality='full'—structural uncertainty. Bradley's 18.69 K/9 in 4.1 IP is tiny sample noise. Market knows more here; lean MIN but no conviction.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+125 / -150CHW / MIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+136)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -112 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total