MLB / mlb / live
CHW 6 / MIN 9CHWChicago White Sox46%
MINMinnesota Twins54%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterDavid Sandlin
Model pickMIN moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterJoe Ryan
CHW46%ML +122
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
MIN54%ML -144
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap3.2 pts
Away starter is TBD with fallback data showing 6.75 ERA across 4 IP—completely unreliable. Joe Ryan's 0.00 ERA in 5.1 IP is too small to trust despite elite K/9. Model at 53.6% vs market at 59.4% for MIN creates uncertainty. CHW's better offense (5.7 RPG, .729 OPS) vs MIN (4.5 RPG, .673 OPS) supports the offense_defense_mismatch flag. Passing until starter clarity emerges.
pitcher data fallbackoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+122 / -144CHW / MIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -106 / U -115
31 books30 ML24 run line23 total