MLB / mlb / live
MIA 9 / MIN 5MIAMiami Marlins45%
MINMinnesota Twins55%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterMax Meyer
Model pickMIN moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterSimeon Woods Richardson
MIA45%ML -125
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
MIN55%ML +105
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanOver
Model-market gap7.9 pts
Model favors MIN 54.7% but market leans MIA (implied 53.1%). MIA's .774 OPS vs MIN's .673 is a large gap. Model's 8.97 total vs market 8.5 suggests over lean, consistent with Target Field's 1.06 park factor. Woods Richardson missing all season stats raises uncertainty; defer slightly to market side.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-125 / +105MIA / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -118 / U -103
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total