MLB / mlb / live
TOR 3 / MIN 4TORToronto Blue Jays59%
MINMinnesota Twins41%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterTrey Yesavage
Model pickTOR moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterJoe Ryan
TOR59%ML -110
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
MIN41%ML -110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap8.6 pts
Model favors TOR 58.6% but market is dead even (MIN -105). Yesavage data is fallback quality (10 starts, 5.1 IP total impossible—likely aggregation error). Ryan's 0.00 ERA in 5.1 IP is tiny sample noise. Ace matchup flag fires but neither pitcher has proven full-season track record. Market knows something model doesn't; lean home for park familiarity but low conviction.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gapace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-110 / -110TOR / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-173)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total