MLB / mlb / live
TOR 1 / MIN 7TORToronto Blue Jays47%
MINMinnesota Twins53%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterKevin Gausman
Model pickMIN moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterBailey Ober
TOR47%ML -136
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
MIN53%ML +115
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.8 pts
Model gives MIN 53.4% despite worse record (13-18 vs 14-16), worse offense (3.9 RPG vs 4.8), and worse OPS (.673 vs .786). Market correctly favors TOR at 54.6% implied. Gausman's 16.5 K/9 in 6 IP is elite stuff despite small sample. Model's 9.03 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.5-run miss at a neutral park — likely overweighting TOR's recent offensive form while underweighting Gausman's dominance.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-136 / +115TOR / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -106 / U -115
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total