MLB / mlb / live
TOR 1 / MIN 7TORToronto Blue Jays47%
MINMinnesota Twins53%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterKevin Gausman
Model pickMIN moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterBailey Ober
TOR47%ML -136
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
MIN53%ML +115
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.1 pts
Model gives MIN 53.4% despite worse record (13-18 vs 14-16), worse offense (3.9 RPG vs 4.8), and worse OPS (.673 vs .786). Market correctly favors TOR at 54.6% implied. Gausman's 16.5 K/9 in 6 IP is elite stuff despite small sample. Model's 9.03 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.5-run miss at a neutral park — likely overweighting TOR's recent offensive form while underweighting Gausman's dominance.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-136 / +115TOR / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -106 / U -115
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total