MLB / mlb / live
TOR 11 / MIN 4TORToronto Blue Jays56%
MINMinnesota Twins44%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterDylan Cease
Model pickTOR moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterConnor Prielipp
TOR56%ML -131
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
MIN44%ML +110
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.4 pts
Cease's 1.69 ERA and 20.25 K/9 in 5.1 IP is microscopic sample, but market respects it at -121. Prielipp is pure fallback data—no ERA, IP, or K/9 to work with. Model predicts 9.33 total vs market 7.5; that 1.83 gap screams structural miss on Cease's small-sample dominance. Lean TOR and under.
pitcher data fallbacktotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-131 / +110TOR / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total