MLB / mlb / live
SEA 7 / MIN 1SEASeattle Mariners49%
MINMinnesota Twins51%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterLogan Gilbert
Model pickMIN moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterJoe Ryan
SEA49%ML -126
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
MIN51%ML +108
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.3 pts
Model sees a coin flip (50.6% MIN), market leans SEA (52.9% implied). SEA's .793 OPS vs MIN's .673 justifies market position. Ryan's 0.00 ERA in 5.1 IP is microscopic sample; Gilbert's 5.06 ERA similarly noisy. Model's 8.94 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.44-run gap—likely overweighting small samples. Take SEA lean, under on total.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-126 / +108SEA / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total