MLB / mlb / live
SEA 7 / MIN 1SEASeattle Mariners49%
MINMinnesota Twins51%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterLogan Gilbert
Model pickMIN moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterJoe Ryan
SEA49%ML -126
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
MIN51%ML +108
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.4 pts
Model sees a coin flip (50.6% MIN), market leans SEA (52.9% implied). SEA's .793 OPS vs MIN's .673 justifies market position. Ryan's 0.00 ERA in 5.1 IP is microscopic sample; Gilbert's 5.06 ERA similarly noisy. Model's 8.94 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.44-run gap—likely overweighting small samples. Take SEA lean, under on total.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-126 / +108SEA / MIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total