MLB / mlb / live
CIN 5 / MIN 4CINCincinnati Reds47%
MINMinnesota Twins53%
at Target Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterAndrew Abbott
Model pickMIN moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
MINHome starterTaj Bradley
CIN47%ML +111
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
MIN53%ML -130
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.5 pts
Bradley's 4.1 IP across 10 starts signals opener usage, not a true starter. Abbott's 6.0 IP over 10 starts is similarly sparse. Model total of 9.24 vs market 8.0 is a 1.24-run gap in a hitter park (PF 1.06). Lean over on bullpen exposure, but starter uncertainty makes the moneyline a pass.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+111 / -130CIN / MIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total