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STL 4 / MIL 6
STLSt. Louis Cardinals39%
MILMilwaukee Brewers61%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterAndre PallanteConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline61%Model 20260921_auto
MILHome starterJacob MisiorowskiConfirmed
STL39%ML +172
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
MIL61%ML -206

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.7 pts

Misiorowski's 1.86 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 13.13 K/9 is a clear comparison over Pallante (3.61 ERA, 6.08 K/9), and STL's 3.1 runs per game is the weaker offense. Market at 67.9% is above the model's 61.2%; I side with the market here. Model's 7.81 total sits well above the 7.0 line despite a 0.95 park factor and the strikeout mismatch, so under.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total7.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Andre PallanteSTL starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +113 draftkings / U +115 betmgm3 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / home
Projected K7.0Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +107 betonlineag / U -130 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 6.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.581%over
O 5.568%under
O 6.554%under
O 7.540%under
O 8.528%under
O 9.518%under
O 10.511%under
O 11.56%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+172 / -206STL / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -118 / U -104
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total