MLB / mlb / live
STL 2 / MIL 3STLSt. Louis Cardinals41%
MILMilwaukee Brewers59%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterQuinn MathewsConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline59%Model 20260921_auto
MILHome starterDustin MayConfirmed
STL41%ML +134
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
MIL59%ML -160
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total7.6
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Quinn MathewsSTL starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 bovada / U +116 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Dustin MayMIL starter / home
Projected K2.9Actual 5 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -135 betonlineag / U +115 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 2.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.577%over
O 2.554%over
O 3.532%over
O 4.517%over
O 5.58%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+134 / -160STL / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total