MLB / mlb / live
STL 4 / MIL 8STLSt. Louis Cardinals41%
MILMilwaukee Brewers59%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterMichael McGreevyConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline59%Model 20260921_auto
MILHome starterRobert GasserConfirmed
STL41%ML +157
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
MIL59%ML -185
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Michael McGreevySTL starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -115 draftkings / U -104 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.565%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%under
O 3.565%under
O 4.546%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Robert GasserMIL starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -124 draftkings / U +115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.510%over
O 8.55%over
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+157 / -185STL / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total