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ATL 1 / MIL 4
ATLAtlanta Braves43%
MILMilwaukee Brewers57%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterMartín PérezConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline57%Model 20260817_auto
MILHome starterLogan HendersonConfirmed
ATL43%ML +138
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
MIL57%ML -160

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.2 pts

Model at 56.9% is below the market's 62% on MIL, and here I side with the market: Milwaukee's 5.7 RPG and .972 OPS dwarf Atlanta's 2.8 RPG, and Henderson (2.70 ERA, 10.66 K/9, 0.87 WHIP) is the better arm even in a 10-start sample. On the total, both starters under 3.50 ERA in a 0.95 park argues under 7.5; the model's 8.77 looks structurally high.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Martín PérezATL starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 fanatics / U -110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%under
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Logan HendersonMIL starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +102 betonlineag / U -125 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 6.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%under
O 5.554%under
O 6.539%under
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+138 / -160ATL / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -106 / U -113
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total