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TEX 1 / MIL 6
TEXTexas Rangers51%
MILMilwaukee Brewers49%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterCody BradfordConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline51%Model 20260824_auto
MILHome starterLogan HendersonConfirmed
TEX51%ML +180
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
MIL49%ML -213

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.0 pts

Model's TEX lean is an offense-defense mismatch: Texas is 66-68 with 3.8 RPG and .698 OPS against a Milwaukee club at 83-51, 6.6 RPG, .972 OPS. Henderson (2.60 ERA, 10.25 K/9, 0.89 WHIP) outclasses Bradford (1.40 WHIP, 5.66 K/9, only 20.7 IP). Model total of 8.83 vs market 7.5 ignores the 0.95 park and TEX's weak bats; take the under.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cody BradfordTEX starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -109 draftkings / U -104 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.578%under
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Logan HendersonMIL starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -104 fanduel / U -115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 6.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.557%over
O 6.541%over
O 7.528%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+180 / -213TEX / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -104
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total