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SEA 0 / MIL 22
SEASeattle Mariners53%
MILMilwaukee Brewers47%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterBryce MillerConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline53%Model 20260817_auto
MILHome starterKyle HarrisonConfirmed
SEA53%ML +148
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
MIL47%ML -175

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.3 pts

Model's 53% on SEA fights a market implying 59% MIL while picking the team with the worse record (59-66 vs 77-48) and worse OPS (.793 vs .972) — the mismatch flag reads as a red flag on the model, not an comparison. Siding with Milwaukee at standard. Harrison (2.99, 10.99 K/9) vs Miller (3.39, 0.99 WHIP) in a 0.95 park argues under 7.5.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Bryce MillerSEA starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 draftkings / U -150 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%under
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Kyle HarrisonMIL starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -155 draftkings / U +135 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%over
O 6.538%over
O 7.525%over
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+148 / -175SEA / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total