MLB / mlb / live
MIN 8 / MIL 6MINMinnesota Twins44%
MILMilwaukee Brewers56%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterZebby MatthewsConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline56%Model 20260803_auto
MILHome starterShane DrohanConfirmed
MIN44%ML +150
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
MIL56%ML -179
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Zebby MatthewsMIN starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 betmgm / U +110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Shane DrohanMIL starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +113 draftkings / U -134 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%under
O 5.543%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+150 / -179MIN / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -112 / U -108
32 books31 ML22 run line22 total