sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

MIN 3 / MIL 4
MINMinnesota Twins28%
MILMilwaukee Brewers72%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MINAway starterConnor PrielippConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline72%Model 20260803_auto
MILHome starterJacob MisiorowskiConfirmed
MIN28%ML +222
Base model probability72%Moneyline only
MIL72%ML -275

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.7 pts

Model (71.6%) and market (69.8%) essentially agree on Milwaukee, so there's no independent comparison on the side, but Misiorowski's 1.63 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 13.8 K/9 against Prielipp's 4.75 ERA/1.31 WHIP justifies the price. The model's 8.58-run total sits over a run above the 7.5 line despite a 0.95 park factor and both clubs under 4 RPG; I side with the under.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.6
Projected total8.6
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Connor PrielippMIN starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 fanatics / U -122 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / home
Projected K9.1Actual 9 K / Over 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O -122 fanduel / U +111 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 8.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.597%over
O 4.594%over
O 5.587%over
O 6.578%over
O 7.567%over
O 8.555%over
O 9.543%under
O 10.532%under
O 11.522%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+222 / -275MIN / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-122)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML22 run line22 total