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PIT 2 / MIL 4
PITPittsburgh Pirates49%
MILMilwaukee Brewers51%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterPaul SkenesConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline51%Model 20260803_auto
MILHome starterKyle HarrisonConfirmed
PIT49%ML +113
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
MIL51%ML -132

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.9 pts

Model's 8.95 total is nearly two runs above the market's 7.0, unsupported by a 0.95 park factor and two starters with 10.9 and 11.3 K/9 and sub-1.12 WHIPs. Under is the cleaner side. On the side, MIL at 70-43 with Harrison's 3.01 ERA justifies a small lean, but the model's 51.4% sits under the market's 55.2%, so no conviction.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Paul SkenesPIT starter / away
Projected K6.5Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +120 fanatics / U -151 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 7.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.561%over
O 6.546%under
O 7.532%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Kyle HarrisonMIL starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +132 fanduel / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.523%over
O 8.514%over
O 9.58%over
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+113 / -132PIT / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+167)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total