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PITPittsburgh Pirates47%
MILMilwaukee Brewers53%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterBraxton AshcraftConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline53%Model 20260803_auto
MILHome starterDustin MayConfirmed
PIT47%ML +107
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
MIL53%ML -124

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.3 pts

Market implies 55.9% on MIL versus the model's 53.1%; I side with the market — Milwaukee is 71-43 and Pittsburgh's 3.3 RPG on a .710 OPS is the weakest input in this game. The model's 9.00-run total is 1.5 above the 7.5 line despite a 0.95 park factor and two starters at 3.96 and 4.38 ERA, which reads as a structural miss. Under.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / away
Projected K5.3
Best price at 5.55.5O -117 draftkings / U +104 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.589%
O 3.576%
O 4.560%
O 5.543%
O 6.528%
O 7.517%
O 8.510%
O 9.55%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Dustin MayMIL starter / home
Projected K5.9
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 fanatics / U +115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.592%
O 3.582%
O 4.568%
O 5.552%
O 6.537%
O 7.524%
O 8.515%
O 9.58%
O 10.54%
O 11.52%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+107 / -124PIT / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total