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COL 2 / MIL 11
COLColorado Rockies39%
MILMilwaukee Brewers61%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterKyle FreelandConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline61%Model 20260720_auto
MILHome starterJacob MisiorowskiConfirmed
COL39%ML +290
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
MIL61%ML -370

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time14.5 pts

Model has MIL 60.8%, market 75.2% — massive 14.4pp gap flags structural miss. Misiorowski's 1.57 ERA over 115 IP with 13.54 K/9 is elite, not noise. Freeland's 7.28 ERA is real weakness. Market correctly prices ace-vs-scrub; model underweights pitcher quality. Total: model 8.82 vs market 7.5, but pitcher park (0.95) plus Misiorowski's dominance argues under market line.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kyle FreelandCOL starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 betonlineag / U -142 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%under
O 3.566%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / home
Projected K9.3Actual 12 K / Over 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +103 betonlineag / U -110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 8.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.598%over
O 4.594%over
O 5.588%over
O 6.580%over
O 7.569%over
O 8.557%over
O 9.545%over
O 10.533%over
O 11.524%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+290 / -370COL / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-159)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total