MLB / mlb / live
PIT 2 / MIL 4PITPittsburgh Pirates42%
MILMilwaukee Brewers58%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterJared JonesConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline58%Model 20260803_auto
MILHome starterLogan HendersonConfirmed
PIT42%ML +125
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
MIL58%ML -147
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.5
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Jared JonesPIT starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -115 fanatics / U +105 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Logan HendersonMIL starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +100 betmgm / U -107 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.523%over
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+125 / -147PIT / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total