MLB / mlb / live
PIT 4 / MIL 3PITPittsburgh Pirates45%
MILMilwaukee Brewers55%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterBubba ChandlerConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline55%Model 20260803_auto
MILHome starterBrandon SproatConfirmed
PIT45%ML +126
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
MIL55%ML -150
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -133 draftkings / U +106 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Brandon SproatMIL starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +102 fanduel / U -128 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%under
O 5.552%under
O 6.537%under
O 7.524%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+126 / -150PIT / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -116
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total