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COL 5 / MIL 8
COLColorado Rockies38%
MILMilwaukee Brewers62%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterRyan FeltnerConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline62%Model 20260720_auto
MILHome starterRobert GasserConfirmed
COL38%ML +195
Base model probability62%Moneyline only
MIL62%ML -236

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.3 pts

Model has MIL 61.9%, market implies 67.3% - market is more bullish. Both pitchers mediocre (Gasser 4.91 ERA, Feltner 5.48 ERA) but American Family Field runs at 0.950 PF. Model total 8.90 vs market 9.0 is tight. COL offense terrible (.531 OPS) but MIL only 4.0 RPG. Slight lean MIL and under given park suppression.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ryan FeltnerCOL starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +140 betmgm / U -150 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Robert GasserMIL starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 bovada / U -128 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.559%under
O 5.543%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+195 / -236COL / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -111
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total