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COL 5 / MIL 2
COLColorado Rockies39%
MILMilwaukee Brewers61%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterTomoyuki SuganoConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline61%Model 20260720_auto
MILHome starterShane DrohanConfirmed
COL39%ML +230
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
MIL61%ML -279

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.4 pts

Model has MIL at 60.5%, market implies 69.0% — an 8.5pp gap triggers the disagreement flag. COL's road offense (.531 OPS) is truly dismal, but model underweights MIL's 64-38 record quality. Sugano's 4.76 ERA and 5.06 K/9 in a pitcher's park makes over 8.5 reasonable despite model's 9.03. Side with MIL but downgrade confidence given market's stronger view.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tomoyuki SuganoCOL starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +120 fanatics / U -145 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Shane DrohanMIL starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -122 fanduel / U +118 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+230 / -279COL / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total