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NYM 3 / MIL 4
NYMNew York Mets41%
MILMilwaukee Brewers59%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterChristian ScottConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline59%Model 20260720_auto
MILHome starterLogan HendersonConfirmed
NYM41%ML +134
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
MIL59%ML -158

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.9 pts

Model at 58.5% vs market 56.6% on MIL—minimal comparison. Both pitchers sub-3.00 ERA (Henderson 2.97, Scott 2.87) with strong K rates (10.26, 10.86). Model total 8.84 vs market 7.5 is a huge 1.34-run gap; ace matchup + pitcher park (0.95 PF) argues market has this right. Pass on side, lean under.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Christian ScottNYM starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -115 fanatics / U -101 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.527%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Logan HendersonMIL starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -122 fanduel / U +102 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%over
O 8.510%over
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+134 / -158NYM / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+139)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total